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I'm going with the Cardinals here today despite the line movement going the other way. I think I know why it's going the other way and it's because Pineiro has given up 4 ER in each of his last 2 starts. However, get this the Pirates had four 2 out RBI's against him and were 5-8 with runners in scoring position, and against the Brewers they also had four two out RBI's including 3 in the 1st inning on HR. So in my opinion it's not like he's pitching poorly but the perception is that he is. I think at home where he has been dominant and against a struggling Braves team who did come out and score 9 runs yesterday that he will will. Pineiro is 7-4 with a 2.62 ERA. Of course he pitched well at Atlanta going 6.2 innings and giving up 2 ER, and he's been that much better at home. Another reason why the line is moving is Jurrjens is no slouch as he's also on 5 days rest here with a 3.13 ERA on the road, but his team is just 7-7 in his road starts this year.
Jurrjens actually has not pitched well on 5 days rest as the Braves are 1-5 in his last 6 on 5 days rest. Atlanta is also 0-11 when Jurrjens pitches vs. NL Central in his last 11. Braves are also 1-12 when he starts game 1 of a series in his last 13 and they are 2-5 when he is a road dog. Jurrjens pitched well at home vs. the Cardinals going 6 IP 6H 2ER and 2BB but this was a long time ago and there are 3 players that I think can help against Jurrjens that were not there before. Lugo, Glaus and of course Holliday who is 6-10 off Jurrjens in his career. This has made the Cardinals a much more formidable offense and look for them to get ahead and close it out with their strong bullpen.
Now the Cardinals haven't hit in their last 5 but neither have the Braves who have a .219 average vs. RHP including just 3.63 runs per 9 which is inflated because of the output they got off Oswalt yesterday who in my opinion is still fighting an injury and does not have his best stuff, but the Braves bullpen has 4.97 ERA last 5 and 4.94 last 10 while the Cardinals come in at 2.35 ERA last 5 and 2.15 Last 10 along with their .298 average and 5.83 runs per 9 vs. RHP over their last 10. Cardinals are 8-0 in their last 8 following an off day and 4-0 in their last 4 vs. RH starter at home. Long term they have hit RHP better at home +0.48 in average and +0.60 runs per 9 innings as they are 38-17 in their last 55 vs. RHP. They are 11-1 in Pineiros last 12 starts and 8-2 in his last 9 as a favorite. Braves are 1-4 in STL last 5 meetings.
